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COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – Texas lost fewer nonfarm jobs in July than in June, suggesting that the state's economic downturn has reached a turning point.

According to the latest economic review from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, the Texas economy lost 219,200 nonfarm jobs from July 2008 to July 2009, an annual job loss of 2.1 percent. This was an improvement on the 2.4 percent loss from June 2008 to June 2009.

The U.S. economy lost 4.2 percent of its total nonfarm jobs from July 2008 to July 2009, the same rate as from June 2008 to June 2009, indicating a trend toward stabilization of the national economy. The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.9 percent in July 2008 to 7.9 percent in July 2009, while the U.S. rate rose from 5.8 percent to 9.4 percent during the same period.

Only three Texas industries (education and health services, leisure and hospitality, other services industry) and the government sector had more jobs in July 2009 than in July 2008. Nine industries experienced net job losses over the same period, said Dr. Ali Anari, research economist with the Center.

Four Texas metro areas experienced positive employment growth rates from July 2008 to July 2009, while 22 metros had net job losses. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission ranked first in job creation, followed by El Paso, Laredo and Odessa.

The state’s actual unemployment rate in July 2009 was 8.2 percent. Amarillo had the lowest unemployment rate, followed by Lubbock, Midland, Abilene and College Station.

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SCIENTIFIC DEVELOPMENT AT VICTORY PARK


DALLAS (globest.com) – Designs have been completed and a model has been constructed for the 14-story Perot Museum of Nature & Science at Victory Park.

The size of the $185 million project has expanded from 160,000 to 180,000 sf. It will include five floors of public space containing ten exhibition galleries and a children’s museum as well as a 300-seat multimedia digital cinema.

All of this will be housed under a one-acre roofscape made of rock and native drought-resistant grasses, which was designed to blend into the Victory Park landscape.

The 170-ft. tall building will sit on five acres at 1155 Broom St.

The project was designed by Morphosis Architects of Los Angeles.
TEXAS TO LEAD ECONOMIC RECOVERY


SAN ANTONIO (San Antonio Business Journal) – The four major Texas metros will be among the first in the nation to recover from the recession, according to a nationwide forecast by IHS Global Insight.

San Antonio and Austin will lead the way, bouncing back to their prerecession job levels sometime next year, predicts the Lexington, Mass.–based economic forecasting firm.

Houston and Dallas–Fort Worth are among eight other metropolitan areas predicted to recover by 2011.
TEXAS CITIES LABOR AWAY


TEXAS (San Antonio Business Journal) – Four of the five best labor markets in the country are in Texas, according to a new study compiled by Portfolio.com.

Austin leads the way, followed by San Antonio. Houston ranks fourth and Dallas–Fort Worth fifth.

Landing at third is Baton Rouge.

All 100 metropolitan areas in the study, including those in Texas, have seen employment decline since last year. However, while 5 percent of the nation’s private-sector jobs have disappeared since June 2008, the collective decline for the 'Texas Four' has been 2.6 percent.

The Texas markets still have 589,500 more jobs than they did five years ago.

Portfolio.com used a nine-part formula to analyze employment trends in the nation’s 100 largest labor markets. The formula used midyear U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data for 2004–09, including unemployment rates and trends, and raw and percentage changes in private-sector employment.
WHEN WILL RECESSION END?


COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – Three things have to happen before the current recession can be declared ended. One is underway, said Dr. Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

"I think the economy will begin to turn for the better once the health care and cap-and-trade issues are settled. Those two political debates are creating substantial uncertainty for business owners and investors," he said.

The personal savings rate is the second trend to watch, said Dotzour.

"Over 70 percent of the U.S. economy is consumer spending," he said. "When the savings rate finally levels out, consumer spending will start to increase again."

Increased corporate profits are the third trend that must occur to bring the recession to an end. There is some indication that has already begun. The last three data points were all up. Rising profits lessen the urge for companies to lay off workers.

Research Economist Dr. Jim Gaines added that the increased corporate profits have come from reduced costs, not the kind that leads to expansion.

"Keep your eye on these three issues," Dotzour said. "When they are resolved, the economy will begin to turn the corner."
ECONOMIC REPORT: PREDOMINANTLY NEGATIVE NUMBERS


COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – The economic downslide continues as the Texas economy lost 307,500 nonfarm jobs from October 2008 to October 2009, an annual job loss of 2.9 percent. That’s still less than the country as a whole, which lost more than 5.45 million jobs or 4 percent of its total nonfarm jobs over the same period.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed from 5.3 percent in October 2008 to 8.3 percent in October 2009, while the U.S. rate rose from 6.6 percent to 10.2 percent.

Only two Texas industries (education and health services, and the “other services” industry), and the government sector had more jobs in October 2009 than in October 2008. Nine other industries experienced net job losses over the same period.

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission was the only metro area with a positive employment growth rate from October 2008 to October 2009. Twenty-five metro areas experienced net job losses.

The state’s actual unemployment rate in October 2009 was 8.1 percent. Lubbock had the lowest unemployment rate followed by Amarillo, Midland, College Station–Bryan, and Abilene.

The Real Estate Center's monthly economic review is available online.
TEXAS EMPLOYMENT STILL FALLING


COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – The nation’s labor market hit bottom in August 2009, but the Texas labor market has not yet hit that mark.

The Texas economy lost 277,400 nonfarm jobs from December 2008 to December 2009, an annual job loss of 2.6 percent. Over the same period, the U.S. economy lost more than four million jobs or 3 percent of its total nonfarm jobs.

The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 5.6 percent in December 2008 to 8.3 percent in December 2009, while the U.S. rate rose from 7.4 percent to 10 percent during the year.

Only two Texas industries (education and health services, other services) and the government sector had more jobs in December 2009 than in December 2008. Nine other industries experienced net job losses over the 12 months.

Only one Texas metro area, McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, experienced a positive employment growth rate from December 2008 to December 2009. Twenty-five metro areas experienced net job losses.

The state’s actual unemployment rate in December 2009 was 8 percent. Amarillo had the lowest unemployment rate followed by Lubbock, Midland, College Station–Bryan, and Abilene.

The Center's complete monthly review of the Texas economy is posted online.
HOUSTON LOSES 25,500 CONSTRUCTION JOBS IN 2009


HOUSTON (Houston Business Journal) – Houston lost 25,500 construction jobs between December 2008 and December 2009, more than any other metropolitan area in the country, according to the Associated General Contractors of America (AGCA).

AGCA’s analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics figures revealed that Houston–Sugar Land–Baytown construction jobs decreased 13 percent from 203,900 jobs in December 2008 to 178,400 jobs at the end of 2009.

Although Houston had the largest total job loss in the construction sector, other metros had higher percentage decreases year over year.

Only four of 337 cities nationwide added construction jobs last year.

AGCA also reports that construction spending fell $100 billion in December to a six-year low of $903 billion.

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