Numbers....

[exedir]

One of my favorite quotes, attributed to Disraeli, British Prime Minister to Queen Victoria during the mid-1800's, is , Liars, damned liars and statisticians.

This week we get a lot of economic numbers, while the nation has its summer slumber.

DATE TIME RELEASE PERIOD CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
             (ET)                                         PERIOD  CONSENSUS  PREVIOUS 
Monday  1000 Pending Home Sales         Jun       +0.1% (8)      +6.7%
             1030 Dallas Fed Mfg Svy           Jul         N/A                6.5
Tuesday 0900 S&P/Case-Shiller 20-Cty
                     Home Prices (YOY)          May      +12.3% (6)     +12.1%
            1000 Consumer Confidence       Jul          81.3 (12)          81.4
Wednesday

             0815 ADP Jobs Svy                  Jul         +178K (6)       +188K
             0830 Real GDP (1st Read)        2Q         +0.9% (12)      +1.8%
                    GDP Prices (1st Read)       2Q         +0.9% (6)       +1.2%
                    Employment Costs            2Q         +0.4% (7)        +0.3%
           0945  Chicago PMI                     Jul          53.5 (9)         51.6
Thursday

           0830 Jobless Claims                   Jul 27        345K (10)       343K

           1000 ISM Mfg PMI                      Jul            51.8 (12)        50.9

           1000 Construction Spending        Jun          +0.3% (6)       +0.5% 

                   N/A Vehicle Sales               Jul          15.9mln (10)  15.9mln
Friday

           0830 Nonfarm Payrolls                 Jul          +175K (12)     +195K
                   Unemployment Rate             Jul           7.5% (11)       7.6%
                   Avg Hrly Wages                  Jul           +0.2% (8)      +0.4%
                   Personal Income                 Jun          +0.5% (10)     +0.5%
                  Consumer Spending             Jun          +0.5% (10)     +0.3%
                  Core PCE Prices                 Jun           +0.2% (6)      +0.1%
           1000 Factory Orders                   Jun           +2.4% (8)       +2.1%

Source: WSJ

The gist is well, nothing much. And that is the problem, nothing much changes or has changed so far this year, and what has changed is things are slow. Of course, the question probably can be resolved as slowly getting better, and not worse. And as to the point, if the sequestration had not happened there would have been better numbers, not necessarily great numbers but better, or not. The private sector is growing the public sector is not, but neither is creating that much of an impact.

So, we will be going into September with a sense of dread, as there remains so many hanging uncertainties of what will happen next starting with the budget, the continuing resolution and the debt ceiling, all slated to be partisan, and to the death, or not.

[LoveLife&Laughter]

So much sh*t to shovel, so little time :0(.

[exedir]

Not a blow out but unexpectedly good....the 2nd Qtr GDP came in at 1.7% vs estimated 0.8%.  And so far the other early numbers are fairly good...with Unemployment yet to go....

And yes, there is a bigger shadow of the T-word, that the Fed will start the QE taper in fall that the markets are currently guess on.

[exedir]

Ok, headline number better than estimate, 7.4% unemployment, lowest level of the index since 2008.  Jobs number, not so great, 162k new non-farm jobs added as compared to consensus guess of 175k.  

Confirms slow growth of the economy but trending upward, so, now on to September as Washington takes the new month off.

[exedir]

Hmmm....the trade deficit for June was release as being better than expected in that the US exported more and imported less.  The more export was Europe and the less was oil and Chinese goods.  

The result is a better outlook for the revision of 2 qtr GDP which was already better than expected leading to a more robust second half 2013 economic forecast.