Syria, Again...

[exedir]

So, no silver bullet, Kemo Sabe, and no other good options either for what is going on in Syria. And yes, its complicated, and getting more so every day.

As to Red Lines, well, these are becoming some of a palate, rather than a color, that there are hues and nunance to the color red, much less any action required to validate the use of a line, no matter what color, that is not to be crossed.

The worse part of the Syrian situation is that it could be resolved in a way that just creates a bigger mess, a worse humanitarian crisis and further inflamed region already burning.

So, what to do? Do nothing, or nothing that makes things worse probably is what would be desired. Nothing means, that other options will seem as possible when practically they are impossible or improbable. The idea of a commitment of America troops in naked invasion is clearly impossible, and impossible for a number of reasons including how to insert troops and maintain them in hostile, and isolated territory. Afghanistan was done that way, but Syria is in the middle of a complicated, political map that does include a whole lot of what and who 'istans.

The use of standoff weapons is possible, but other than shock and awe, what are the viable targets? Blowing up chemical weapons depots are not viable option for the use of any weapon except attack, capture and impounding by highly trained, highly supported troops is a tactical nightmare.

The use of a proxy, such as Israel, to deliver the blows and force regime change is not viable, and could only serve to incense the Arab street and cause retaliation against the Israelis, who we are obligated to protect.

The use of the UN and international troops is an intellectual enterprise with no validity other than to invoke the International Court in the Hague as waiting to try Assad and others, if they are ever brought to justice. Without full and enthusiastic support of the Russians and Chinese, any international intervention is not going to happen, and no, the French can't go it alone, either.

As to the direct support of insurgents with weapons, that can only be on a limited, low capability level in that any such weapons. once introduced. are not longer in our control and become useful for what other purposes and who else's objectives end up with them.

Therefore, the one viable option, again seems to be. do nothing.

Let the killing go on, and hope that this is only a limited geography civil war that will resolve itself without a radical, Islamic government as a result.  This option however, shows America as weak, uncaring, only involved with its own self-interests and seeking to isolate itself as a matter of policy regardless of what threats there may, in the long run, be to the security of American allies and other world interests, and a sign of a new isolationism of the American government and the American people to retreat, once again, behind the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

[LoveLife&Laughter]

Check this out:

Putin Orders Massive Strike Against Saudi Arabia If West Attacks Syria

Read More Here

[exedir]

So, H-Day(happening day) isn't happening, yet. 

No, it seems that the idea that something must be done, is down to, Ok, sure, why not, BUT.   The  BUT now  is making sure that if there is to be a blame game coming out of this, it is going to fall on someone, someone else.  The Italians, of course it is the Italians, are saying no, not their help, without authorization, in this case, authorization from the UN which, is not going to happen.  

Some members of Congress are saying the same thing, it has to be authorized by us, which means a special session or waiting two weeks before Congress comes back in session which is already facing an impossible schedule to do the budget and debt ceiling before the end of October, if then.

So, its red light, green light, it would take a hunk of gumption to run this alone, or without support, even if it is the right thing to do, or the most dangerous thing that could happen to be done in this presidency.

[exedir]

ALL STOP. Prime Minister Cameron failed to get approval from the British parliament to proceed with an attack on Syria.

Other than making Cameron vulnerable  as PM, our friends are not going to help us, except for maybe, the French.  And leave the Administration to go it alone on any military option in Syria, without any international cover at all.

And yes, it makes the international community look like wimps, weak, appeasers, hypocrites and intimidated by the bad guys, whoever they are.  And makes the Assad regime, the Russians and the Iranians look like winners, no matter what is done.

Overall, a loss to humanity but, a realization that even if something can be done, doesn't mean it will be done, or should be done, and if done has to be with courage, conviction and commitment knowing the right maybe only an ideal, but to others, not practical or prudent.

We've seen this movie before, when Neville Chamberlain was the star with a piece of paper.

[LoveLife&Laughter]

when Neville Chamberlain was the star with a piece of paper.

Ouch!  That may be unfair.  

And, I heard last Tuesday that Obama was not going to bomb Syria, for many reasons.

[exedir]

First is the cost/benefit analysis, the gain vs. the pain.  Hard to see how this works in our favor, in that, an attack like the Clinton era cruise missile salvo on Sudan and Afghanistan, it would be a mummers show, of little impact, no effect with consequences.

It is hard to see anything moving before the G-20 embarrassment is over, where it seems Obama and Cameron will be seen with their arms around each other in consolation, or not.  Cameron has put his neck out on this one, and may end up with his arms around Tony Blair, in retirement.  As to Hollande, it is hard to see where this works for us or him, as his party will not support him, as will be the same for the rest of France.

We are in this alone, with the right, if not the might, this time.

[exedir]

Ok, HEADS UP, it is going to be up to Congress.  

Shared blame as a motive?  Possible, most probably and this is politics, and because of Iraqi  and Gulf War II, a necessary process.

All of this means that H-Day is postpone until after the G-20 and making the best of being in Russia with Putin, Snowden and Sochi 2014 LGBT problem.  

Meanwhile, is the Assad regime going to take advantage of this?  Sure, why not, they are winning.

And no, it isn't going to be a special session, in that Congress is back on Sept 9th.  What this does do is to squeeze the critical economic agenda and time line, and puts Boehner, McConnell and the rest of the Republican leadership in a bind, of course.

The other winner here is Rand Paul and his ambitions.

[LoveLife&Laughter]

I was hoping we all'd just say thank you instead of making up tangents.

[exedir]

L3, it is just clearly, a mess and complicated, with or without red lines or lines of any kind.

The ramifications and consequences are always a part of leadership, but as to this being a Profile in Courage, not necessarily.  

If there is a losers in all of this, it has been Secretary Kerry as a person and as the highest diplomatic official in the administration, and any further victims of chemical warfare, much less those that are going to die in Syria regardless of what the president and congress decide to do.

As to thanks, that isn't a part of politics, not without a cost.

[LoveLife&Laughter]

I heard Kerry this morning, he's right on target.  

[exedir]

Consider, how lucky Hillary is. in all of this, and Kerry isn't.  And what would Hillary do?

[LoveLife&Laughter]

Same thing probably, check it out before rushing to conclusions.  it's the smart thing to do don'tcha know...